Qeshm island and Hormuz hit as attacks raise escalation risk
Two projectiles hit Iran's Qeshm island on Friday night, adding to a series of strikes on the southern island in recent weeks. The latest incident comes as more ships have been attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz and the United States has continued bombing Iran. Mediators are still trying to prevent the confrontation from widening further.
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The supplied material says the strikes on Qeshm targeted Iranian air defences and launchers, and that the island has been hit repeatedly over recent weeks. It also says Iran's army claimed in the early hours of Saturday that it destroyed a US-made MQ-9 drone using a new system. Separately, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that its air defences intercepted an MQ-1, which it described as the 16th aircraft of that model destroyed since the start of the war.
Maritime disruption in the waterway has also intensified. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, at least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending 6 November, and three of them sank. The same weekly report said there had been 170 outbound and 155 inbound transits, around 65 percent below pre-conflict levels, showing how sharply traffic has fallen.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, so any sustained disruption has implications far beyond the immediate military confrontation. The supplied material says many vessels are now using the Iranian route to the north when transponders are switched on, while others are still trying the southern route near Oman with tracking systems turned off to move oil through the waterway. That pattern suggests shipping companies are trying to keep trade moving while reducing exposure.
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The report also says the Western military intelligence agency has recorded 88 projectile strikes since hostilities resumed in early July, although it cautions that many attacks are going unreported. Iranian armed forces have separately warned that tankers and commercial vessels using what they call unauthorised routes could also be hit by naval mines. The Iranian naval force said on Saturday that a tanker with its transponder turned off caught fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine, while Washington says the mines have been cleared.
The latest developments come against a backdrop of continued US-Iran military pressure. President Donald Trump has described the strikes as "minor strikes", but the supplied material says concerns are growing about a wider escalation. It also says for years the IRGC said it was limiting the range of its ballistic missiles to about 2,000 kilometres to reassure European countries they would not be targeted, underlining how regional tensions have long had a wider international dimension.
The immediate question is whether the attacks on Qeshm and the shipping incidents are isolated events or part of a broader campaign. It is also unclear how many of the maritime attacks have not been publicly reported, and whether the reported drone losses will lead to further US or Iranian action. For now, the main issue to watch is whether the combination of air strikes, drone interceptions and shipping attacks pushes the Strait of Hormuz closer to a wider conflict.
Iran has stepped up diplomatic efforts after United States President Donald Trump suggested the US could resume major strikes on the country. The developments come as Tehran seeks to widen its contacts through Qatar, Russia and other channels while warning that it will retaliate if larger attacks restart. The immediate focus is on the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have risen sharply alongside military and diplomatic manoeuvring.
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According to the supplied material, a US official quoted by Axios said US Central Command was preparing for the resumption of major military operations in Iran and was waiting for orders from Washington. Trump told reporters on Thursday that the US may have to "destroy" the rest of Iran and said people would "know soon enough" if he acts. The same reporting says Iran downed two US reconnaissance drones near Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz after earlier US strikes this week.
Tehran has responded by offering the US a new nuclear and peace proposal through Qatari mediators, but only after Washington meets seven Iranian demands. Those demands include lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets and ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the proposal would be discussed only after those conditions are met, and the US is said to be examining it.
The stakes are high because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints and any disruption can affect global shipping and oil markets. Iran has linked reopening the waterway and restarting peace talks to the same set of demands, making the diplomatic track inseparable from the military one. The situation also matters because the US has said any ceasefire arrangement must include a deal on Iran's nuclear capacity before wider peace talks can restart.
Iran has also intensified contacts with Russia. Its top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, travelled to Moscow on Thursday for talks and met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin, where he delivered a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Iranian state media did not disclose the contents of the message, but Rezaei described the exchange as "an extremely important exchange" in remarks reported by the Iranian embassy.
Rezaei also set out Tehran's position publicly, saying Iran had announced seven conditions to the Americans and would neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor enter negotiations unless those conditions were met. The supplied material does not list all seven in full, but it does confirm that sanctions relief, asset unfreezing and an end to the naval blockade are among them. The diplomatic push suggests Iran is trying to create leverage while also signalling that it is not closing the door entirely on talks.
The broader context is a fast-moving confrontation in which military pressure and diplomacy are advancing at the same time. The reporting says the US struck Iran earlier this week, while Iran says it has already shown it can respond by targeting reconnaissance drones near Qeshm island. That combination raises the risk of further escalation, especially if Washington decides to act on the reported CENTCOM preparations.
What remains unclear is whether the US will accept any part of Iran's proposal, how far the seven demands can be negotiated, and whether the reported military preparations will turn into new strikes. It is also not yet clear what Russia's role may be beyond the Moscow talks, or whether Qatar's mediation can produce a channel for direct progress. For now, the key question is whether diplomacy can slow a confrontation that both sides are still preparing to intensify.
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