South Africa ANC faces sharper local election losses as coalition talks begin

With more than 80% of ballots counted, South Africa's African National Congress is on course for a sharper-than-expected setback in the local elections, falling to 31.8% of the national vote. The result would leave the former liberation movement well below its 2021 showing and deepen concerns about its long-term electoral decline. Coalition negotiations have already begun behind closed doors as parties position themselves for control of municipalities and major cities.

The Democratic Alliance is on 24.1%, while uMkhonto weSizwe, the party led by former president Jacob Zuma, is on 9.3%, according to the latest figures cited in the reporting. Turnout has also risen, with the election commission estimating that 54.5% of registered voters cast ballots, up from 46% five years ago. Final results are expected on Sunday, but the current count already points to a fragmented political landscape and difficult bargaining ahead.

The ANC is projected to lose its status as the biggest party in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the country's two most populous provinces. In Johannesburg, South Africa's commercial capital, the DA was leading with 40% of the vote with just over half counted, while the ANC was in second place on 17.5%. The city has faced repeated service failures, including water and power cuts, uncollected rubbish and potholes, and its municipality has acknowledged a 220bn rand infrastructure spending backlog.

The local vote matters because municipalities are responsible for basic services that shape daily life, including water, electricity and refuse collection. The ANC's decline has been linked in the reporting to unemployment, crime, corruption and poor service delivery, all of which have eroded support in areas that once formed the core of its base. The result also matters nationally because it will influence how the party governs in coalition settings and how much leverage opposition groups can gain in key urban centres.

The election comes against the backdrop of a longer erosion in ANC dominance since the end of apartheid in 1994. The party has remained the central force in South African politics for three decades, but its support has steadily weakened in local and national contests. The latest figures suggest that trend is continuing, even as turnout has improved and more than 500 parties competed across nearly 300 municipalities.

What remains unclear is the final seat distribution and which coalitions will emerge in individual municipalities once counting is complete. Senior figures in key parties have said they are prepared to talk to almost anyone, but they have kept their negotiating strategies private. The main question now is whether the ANC can limit the damage or whether the vote will further weaken its position in local government and in the run-up to future national contests.

Early municipal election results in South Africa show the African National Congress on about 32% of the vote after more than 60% of ballots had been counted. The Democratic Alliance is in second place on 25%, while Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe party is third on 8.5%, according to the election commission data cited in the reporting. The figures point to a sharp weakening of the ANC in local contests, including in major cities such as Johannesburg.

Turnout was estimated at 54.5%, with about 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters casting ballots, the electoral commission said. That is higher than the 46% turnout recorded in the pandemic-hit 2021 local elections. The results also suggest the MK party is trailing below some opinion-poll expectations, despite being seen as a potential challenger in parts of the country.

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The ANC has been South Africa's largest party since the end of apartheid in 1994, but it has repeatedly performed worse in municipal elections than in national polls. It won 46% in the 2021 local elections after falling below 50% for the first time, and it secured just over 40% in the 2024 national election, forcing it into a unity government with nine other parties, including the DA. The latest count will be closely watched as a measure of voter sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election.

The local vote matters because municipalities are responsible for basic services such as water, electricity and refuse collection. The ANC has faced criticism over years of municipal mismanagement, with voters citing failing water supplies, persistent power cuts and crumbling public services. It has also faced corruption allegations, while splinter parties have taken support away from its traditional base.

The contest is also significant because control of South Africa's eight major metropolitan municipalities is at stake, along with dozens of district and local councils. The eastern port city of Durban had been viewed as one of the places where the MK party could make a strong showing, but projections from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research put its support there at 32%. That underlines how fragmented the local political landscape has become as the ANC's dominance continues to erode.

What remains unclear is how the final seat distribution will reshape coalitions and control in individual municipalities once counting is complete. The results could determine which parties are able to form local administrations and how they will manage essential services in the months ahead. The broader question is whether the ANC can limit the damage or whether the vote will deepen concerns about its long-term electoral decline.

South Africans are voting in highly contested local elections that are expected to test support for the African National Congress, the former ruling party. The vote is taking place across nearly 300 municipalities, where councils are responsible for basic services including water, electricity and refuse collection. The elections come after years of declining support for the ANC and growing frustration over service delivery.

More than 500 parties are contesting the polls, making the race one of the most competitive local election contests in recent years. The ANC is seeking to show it can still govern effectively after losing its parliamentary majority in the last national election, its first such setback since 1994. President Cyril Ramaphosa has rejected suggestions that the party is in decline, telling supporters at its final rally that the ANC would prove its critics wrong on election day.

The party's support has fallen steadily over time, according to the supplied reporting, from 70% in the 2004 general election to 40% two decades later. That decline has been linked to public anger over corruption, unemployment and crime. Polls and political commentators have predicted further losses in the local elections, raising questions about how much authority the ANC can retain at municipal level.

The stakes are significant because local government in South Africa plays a direct role in everyday life. Municipalities are responsible for services that many residents say have become unreliable or uneven, and dissatisfaction with those services has become a central political issue. In that context, the vote is being watched not only as a measure of party popularity but also as a test of whether local administrations can still deliver basic governance.

In townships such as Alexandra, north-east of Johannesburg, the ANC has historically drawn strong support, but that base has been weakened by poor governance and voter apathy. Residents interviewed before the vote described frustration with deteriorating services and a lack of change. One first-time voter said he hoped casting a ballot could help improve conditions, while others said they did not plan to vote because they saw little evidence of progress.

The campaign has also highlighted the contrast between national party messaging and local concerns. Leaders have used the final days of campaigning to try to reassure supporters, while voters have focused on practical problems such as rubbish collection, electricity and water supply. The elections therefore carry implications beyond party standings, because they may shape how municipalities are run and how much leverage the ANC keeps in local coalitions and councils.

The current vote also fits into a longer decline in the ANC's electoral dominance. The party was the central force in South African politics after the end of apartheid in 1994, but its share of the vote has gradually eroded over the years. The latest local elections are being closely watched as another measure of whether that decline is continuing and whether opposition parties can convert public dissatisfaction into gains.

What remains unclear is the full scale of the ANC's losses and how the results will reshape control of individual municipalities. The final outcome will determine which parties can form local administrations and how they will manage essential services. The key question now is whether the vote produces a sharper warning for the ANC or a result that allows it to argue that its support remains resilient.

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