US aircraft losses in Iran war rise to at least 81, CBO says

A Congressional Budget Office report says at least 81 United States military aircraft have been lost or damaged during Operation Epic Fury, the American campaign against Iran. The estimate covers fighter jets and drones and puts the cost of the losses at between $1.9bn and $3.3bn as of August 1. The figures add a new measure of the material cost of the conflict, which is now in its eighth month.

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The report, released on Monday, is described as a nonpartisan government assessment of budget-related issues for the legislature. It lists 12 F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, one F-35A Lightning II jet and seven KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelling aircraft among the affected aircraft. Forty-five of the 81 aircraft identified were MQ-9 Reaper drones, underlining the scale of drone losses in the campaign.

The conflict began on February 28, and a lasting ceasefire has still not been reached. The report comes amid criticism over the war's cost and renewed attention to the vulnerability of high-value military assets. A former naval officer quoted in the report said the conflict shows how smaller forces can inflict damage on larger militaries, particularly through low-cost drones.

The same report notes that rumours of a possible drone attack on RAF Fairford, a British base that has hosted US assets during the war, prompted the sudden departure of a dozen US aircraft on Sunday. That episode points to the wider operational strain created by the threat of drone attacks. The losses matter because they highlight the financial and operational burden of a conflict that has not produced a ceasefire.

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They also show how modern warfare is increasingly shaped by drones and other relatively inexpensive systems that can threaten far more costly aircraft and support platforms. For Washington, the figures add pressure over the sustainability of the campaign and the protection of deployed assets in the Middle East. The broader context is a war that has continued alongside other regional tensions and diplomatic efforts.

The report links the aircraft losses to the wider US-Israeli war against Iran, rather than to a single isolated incident. It also suggests that the campaign has forced the United States to adapt to a battlefield where air power and logistics are exposed to persistent drone threats. That makes the cost of each damaged or destroyed aircraft more significant than the raw numbers alone.

What remains unclear is how many of the aircraft are beyond repair, how many have returned to service, and whether the reported losses will rise further. The report gives a snapshot as of August 1, but it does not say whether later incidents have changed the total. The next key question is whether the mounting cost will affect the pace of operations or the search for a ceasefire.

The United States has signalled new demands in discussions over Iran's nuclear programme, with Vice President JD Vance saying Tehran should make a "meaningful" reduction in uranium enrichment capacity. The comments come as senior US officials continue to insist that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon, while Iranian officials question whether Washington is genuinely seeking negotiations. The dispute is unfolding as the wider US-Israel war on Iran enters its eighth month, according to the supplied report.

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Vance said Iran needed to show it was not pursuing a nuclear weapon by changing its enrichment programme, arguing that the level of enrichment was a basic threshold issue. He told Reuters that if Iran did not want a nuclear weapon, it should not produce highly enriched fuel, and asked why it needed uranium enriched to 60 percent. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran had enriched uranium to 60 percent, below the roughly 90 percent considered weapons-grade.

In its May 2025 assessment, the agency found no credible indications of a structured nuclear programme. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, while President Donald Trump has warned that the war will end through either "the nice way or the not-so-nice way". The report says Vance added that the United States was speaking with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, although it was not clear how decisions are made in Iran.

Tehran, meanwhile, has raised doubts about Washington's intentions and has pointed to sanctions, frozen Iranian assets, the US naval blockade and fighting across the region as the main obstacles to a deal. The latest exchange matters because it suggests the outlines of a possible agreement remain contested at a sensitive moment. A reduction in enrichment would be a significant concession for Iran, which has long treated its nuclear programme as a central strategic issue.

For Washington, the demand reflects an effort to limit any pathway to weapons-grade material while keeping pressure on Tehran through diplomacy and public warnings. The comments also show that the nuclear file remains tied to the broader conflict, rather than being handled as a separate technical negotiation. The report says experts see Vance's language as potentially softer than earlier US insistence that Iran abandon enrichment altogether.

Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, said the prospect of Iran seeking a nuclear weapon has remained remote. He added that Tehran's negotiators are more focused on sanctions relief, frozen assets, the naval blockade and regional fighting, which he described as the main barriers to a deal. That framing suggests the talks are not only about centrifuges and enrichment levels, but also about wider political and military pressure.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's findings provide an important backdrop to the current dispute. Enrichment at 60 percent is far above civilian power-reactor levels, but still below weapons-grade material, and the agency's May 2025 assessment did not identify a structured nuclear weapons programme. That distinction appears to be central to the current US argument: that Iran can be pressed to reduce enrichment without the immediate claim that it is already building a bomb.

At the same time, the public remarks from senior US officials indicate that the diplomatic track remains closely linked to deterrence messaging. What remains unclear is whether the two sides are moving toward a concrete formula or simply restating incompatible positions. The report does not say whether any formal proposal has been exchanged, or whether the talks have produced a timetable for further contact.

It also remains uncertain how much authority the Iranian officials named by Vance have over final decisions. For now, the key issue to watch is whether the demand for a "meaningful" reduction in enrichment becomes the basis for a deal or another point of deadlock.

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