Ukraine says Operation Vivaldi has disrupted Russian Donbas encirclement plan
Ukraine's counter-offensive around Lyman has disrupted what an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War described as Russia's plan to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk. The operation, known as Operation Vivaldi, targeted the northern arm of a pincer movement that was meant to link advances from Lyman in the north and Dobropillia in the south-west. According to the assessment, the collapse of that northern thrust has forced Russian units onto the defensive and preserved Ukrainian supply routes in the area.
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The report said Ukrainian forces advanced along the Ridkodub-Nove-Novomykhailivka line in the north and the Yarova-Drobysheve-Stavky line in the south, breaking the salient Russia had built to threaten Sloviansk from the north-east. Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, Andrii Biletskyi, said the first three phases of the operation in mid- to late September liberated 176 square kilometres of territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put the figure at between 125 and 140 square kilometres as of 3 October, while also saying Russian losses had risen sharply over the previous two to three months.
The battlefield significance is tied to the wider Donbas front, where control of ground around Lyman affects access to the so-called fortress belt protecting Ukrainian-held territory in Donetsk. The assessment said that if Russia had completed the encirclement, it would have advanced Moscow's long-standing objective of occupying all of Donetsk region and strengthened its position on the eastern front. Instead, the loss of the northern pincer has reportedly forced Russian units to abandon plans to advance on Sloviansk from the north-east and to redeploy forces to reinforce other parts of the line.
The fighting also highlights the importance of logistics in the war. The report said Ukraine's retention of the Lyman area has preserved key supply routes, while Russian units elsewhere on the front may have been shifted to support the northern sector. It also said the surviving south-western arm of the original encirclement, advancing from the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia area, now faces more ambitious objectives on its own.
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That suggests the operation has had effects beyond the immediate ground gained, altering the shape of Russian options in the region. Lyman has repeatedly been a focal point in the war because of its position on routes toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two cities that remain central to the eastern front. The assessment said the collapse of the northern pincer deprived Russia of positions intended to threaten the northern approaches to the fortress belt.
It also said the operation may have been more successful than Kyiv's official figures indicate, although the exact scale of the gains remains disputed between the figures cited by Biletskyi and Zelenskyy. What remains unclear is how far Ukrainian forces can push beyond the reclaimed territory and whether Russian units can stabilise their line after the setback. It is also not clear how much of the reported territorial gain can be independently verified, or how Moscow will respond to the loss of momentum in the Lyman sector.
The next developments to watch are whether fighting intensifies around Sloviansk and whether the remaining Russian advance from the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia axis can still achieve any of its original aims.
Ukraine says its counteroffensive in eastern Donetsk has reclaimed 175 square kilometres of territory around Lyman, as Russian forces retreat from several settlements south of the town. The fighting is part of a wider struggle for control of the Lyman axis, which sits on the route toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two cities that have long been central to the eastern front. Russian-aligned military commentary has also acknowledged losses in the area, suggesting the battlefield is shifting after months of pressure.
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According to the reporting, the Ukrainian operation is known as Operation Vivaldi and has been building around Lyman this year. A Kremlin-aligned Telegram channel said on 7 October that Moscow's forces were losing villages south of Lyman and were being forced to defend positions rather than advance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the operation was successful but incomplete, indicating that Kyiv sees the gains as part of a continuing campaign rather than a finished breakthrough.
The village of Kryva Luka, east of Sloviansk, has emerged as a key point in the fighting because of its high ground on the Russian-held right bank of the Siversky-Donets River. Russian sources said Ukraine had already recaptured settlements west of Kryva Luka, and they argued that premature claims about control of villages had helped Ukrainian forces prepare counterattacks. The same sources said the possibility of a direct assault on Sloviansk was being pushed further into the future, underlining the operational importance of the area.
The reported gains matter because Lyman has repeatedly been treated as a springboard for operations deeper into Donetsk. Control of ground around the town affects access to the so-called fortress belt of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which remains one of the most sensitive sectors of the war in eastern Ukraine. If confirmed, the recapture of territory there would mark a meaningful setback for Russian plans to regain momentum in the region.
The fighting also reflects the broader pattern of the war, in which both sides have tried to disrupt supply lines and hold key terrain rather than simply seize large cities. Ukraine's Ministry of Defence said its campaign to disrupt Russian ammunition and fuel flows struck a record number of air defence assets and targets more than 50 kilometres from the front in September. That suggests the Lyman advance is taking place alongside a wider effort to weaken Russian logistics and reduce the ability to sustain offensive operations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia captured 1,300 square kilometres of Ukraine in September, echoing statements from his generals. Those claims sit alongside the Russian-aligned account that Moscow is losing ground around Lyman, showing how contested the picture remains. The reporting also indicates that Ukraine built up reserves in the Lyman area before launching the counteroffensive, which may have helped it exploit weaknesses in Russian positions.
For now, the main uncertainty is how far Ukrainian forces can push beyond the reclaimed territory and whether Russian units can stabilise their line near Sloviansk and Kryva Luka. It is also unclear how much of the reported 175 square kilometres can be independently verified and whether the current gains will hold under counterattack. The next developments to watch are whether the fighting spreads further east of Sloviansk, and whether the battle for the Lyman axis changes the wider balance in Donetsk.
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