Tigray fighting deepens as forced recruitment claims emerge

Renewed fighting in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region has intensified, with witnesses describing forced recruitment of men and boys as the conflict spreads. The latest reports say civilians have been rounded up on streets by armed groups linked to the Tigray conflict, adding to fears of a fresh humanitarian crisis. The violence began again on 23 September after months of rising tension and has further destabilised a region already scarred by years of war.

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According to the reports, the renewed clashes have shattered the Pretoria peace agreement signed in November 2022 between Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which governs the region. Witnesses said the recruitment drive has targeted males aged between 15 and 65, while some people have fled towards Addis Ababa. The reports also say Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to and from Tigray on 23 September after Tigrayan forces seized the airport in Mekelle, the regional capital.

The fighting is significant because it revives a conflict that previously caused widespread destruction and displacement in northern Ethiopia. The reports say the Eritrean Defence Forces and Amhara militias, which were involved in the 2020-22 war, have switched allegiance and are now fighting in support of the TPLF. That shift points to a more complex battlefield and raises the risk of further civilian harm, including allegations of child soldier recruitment.

The renewed violence also has wider political and humanitarian implications. Tigray has already endured a devastating war between 2020 and 2022, and the collapse of the peace deal threatens to undo fragile gains made since then. The reports describe a region where people with the means to leave have been heading for the capital in anticipation of renewed war, while others remain trapped as the security situation worsens.

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The latest accounts include testimony from a former fighter who said he refused to rejoin the conflict and feared being forced back into battle. Another witness in Addis Ababa said the main targets were men and boys, underscoring the scale of the reported recruitment effort. The reports do not say how many people have been taken, and there is no independent confirmation in the supplied material of the full extent of the claims.

What remains unclear is how far the fighting will spread, whether the reported recruitment campaign is being carried out systematically, and how the federal government and TPLF will respond. It is also not yet clear whether the suspension of flights will continue or whether civilians will be able to move safely out of the region. The next developments are likely to depend on military movements in Tigray and any official response to the allegations of forced recruitment.

Ethiopia's prime minister has renewed his demand for access to the Red Sea as fighting intensifies in northern Tigray and regional tensions widen. Abiy Ahmed made the remarks while being sworn in for another five-year term, linking the issue of maritime access to what he described as Ethiopia's long-term national interests. The comments came as Ethiopian forces were pushing back opposition forces in Tigray, where the security situation has deteriorated again.

Abiy told parliament that Ethiopia would work to secure a port on the Red Sea, saying access was critical to the country's "civilisation". He said the government would pursue the issue on the basis of "give and take" and insisted that Ethiopia should have an outlet to the sea. The same reporting says Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting opposition forces in Tigray, following the renewed fighting.

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The escalation matters because it links an internal conflict to a wider regional dispute over borders, ports and influence around the Red Sea. Four of the five countries bordering the Red Sea met in Egypt's New Alamein on Sunday and said oversight of the coastline belonged to bordering states. Ethiopia's foreign ministry responded the next day by saying discussions over the Red Sea must take account of the country's "legitimate interests and enduring connection" to the waterway.

The fighting in Tigray is also unfolding against the backdrop of a fragile peace process. Lower-level clashes between the federal military and the Tigray People's Liberation Front began in August, breaking a three-year-old peace deal that had ended the devastating two-year war between the two sides. The latest reporting says the conflict intensified after the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed movements including the TPLF that says it wants to remove Abiy's government.

The dispute over Red Sea access has added another layer to Ethiopia's relations with its neighbours. Eritrea's independence in 1993 cut off Ethiopia's direct access to the coast, and the issue has remained politically sensitive ever since. Somalia's president said in an interview that his country did not object in principle to Ethiopia gaining access through Somali territory, but said any arrangement would need to be negotiated officially.

What remains unclear is how far the fighting in Tigray will spread, whether the accusations against Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan will lead to further diplomatic fallout, and whether Ethiopia's renewed push for maritime access will open any formal talks. It is also not yet clear how the government intends to balance its territorial claims with the risk of a broader regional confrontation. The next developments are likely to depend on military movements in the north and on whether neighbouring states respond publicly to Abiy's remarks.

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